Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House in Phoenix? Rates at 7.4%

Phoenix buyers stepped back in a big way in September. According to the Phoenix REALTORS September 2026 market data reported by In Business Magazine, pending sales across Greater Phoenix were down 40.1% from a year earlier, meaning buyers signed roughly 40% fewer contracts than they did in September 2025. The reason is no mystery: the 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits at 7.40% in Freddie Mac’s October 15 survey, up from 6.27% a year ago.

So is now a good time to buy? My honest answer is that for some buyers it is a better time than the headlines suggest, and for others waiting is the wiser choice. The difference has less to do with the market and more to do with your timeline, your monthly budget, and how long you plan to stay. Here is how I would think it through.

What Changed This Fall in the Phoenix Market

Rates have been climbing for most of 2026. Forbes reported on October 16 that both mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury have risen since February. It also cited a National Association for Business Economics survey in which economists expect rates to ease only slightly, not back to where they were six months ago.

Buyers felt that in their monthly payment, and they responded. Beyond the drop in pending sales, the same Phoenix REALTORS data shows the Valley median sales price slipped 2.1% to $475,000. Inventory rose 6.7%, and months of supply reached 4.3. Within the City of Phoenix, the median fell 3.5% to $485,000, down from $502,500 a year earlier. Zillow’s September numbers, covered by AZ Big Media, point the same way: typical metro home values are down 1.1% from a year ago, and inventory is up 4.4%.

The Phoenix REALTORS board president put it well. He noted that when rates keep moving, people tend to pause before a big financial decision, and that affordability today is more about the monthly payment than the purchase price. That second point is the one I would keep in front of you as you read the rest of this article.

What 2026 Already Taught Us About Waiting for Rates

2026 has already given Phoenix buyers a real-world test of waiting for a better rate. On February 19, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed rate at 6.01%, its lowest level since September 2022. For a buyer at that point, holding out for something under 6% felt like a reasonable bet. By mid-October 2026, that same buyer was looking at 7.40%.

To make that concrete, here is an illustrative example, not a loan offer. Take a home at the City of Phoenix median of $485,000, bought with a 30-year fixed-rate loan and 20% down (the same assumption Freddie Mac uses in its survey), which leaves a $388,000 loan. Principal and interest come to about $2,329 a month at 6.01% and about $2,686 at 7.40%, a difference of roughly $357 every month. Those rates are Freddie Mac’s weekly survey averages, not an annual percentage rate (APR) or a rate any lender is offering you. The figures also leave out property taxes, insurance, and HOA dues, and your own rate will depend on your credit, loan type, and lender.

None of this means anyone who waited made a bad decision. Some had good reasons to wait, and prices have softened since then. The lesson is narrower and more useful than that: nobody controls the timing of rates. If your plan depends on rates reaching a certain number by a certain date, you are making a forecast, not a plan.

Why a Quieter Market Can Work in a Ready Buyer’s Favor

When buyers are writing roughly 40% fewer contracts, the buyers who are still active face less competition. Greater Phoenix homes spent 77 days on market in September, and sellers received 98.1% of their list price. That is a market where a prepared buyer can usually take time to inspect carefully, compare options, and negotiate.

Concessions show the same shift. Redfin’s August 2026 concessions report found that 67.4% of Phoenix-area sales in the three months ending August 31 included a seller concession. That was the third-highest share of the 29 metros Redfin tracked, and up 15.3 percentage points from a year earlier. These concessions include help with closing costs, repair credits, and mortgage-rate buydowns, which can lower your actual monthly payment in a way the headline rate doesn’t show. Redfin’s data comes from its own agents’ transactions, so treat it as a strong signal rather than a full count. Nothing about a concession is guaranteed, either; each one is negotiated home by home.

This is where buying in a slower market can make sense. You are not buying because the market is perfect. You are buying because you have more room than buyers did two or three years ago to negotiate terms that fit your budget. If you are a first-time buyer weighing that leverage, my earlier article on what first-time buyers should know about North Phoenix homes this fall goes deeper on down payment help and seller credits.

The Honest Case for Waiting

There are real reasons to wait, and I would rather you hear them from me than discover them after closing. If you might move again within a few years, buying and selling costs can easily outweigh any gain. If the payment at today’s rate would stretch your budget or drain your emergency savings, a better rate down the road won’t fix the strain you feel in the meantime. And if your job, family plans, or location are still unsettled, renting a little longer can be the smarter choice.

It is also true that rates could fall. Zillow’s chief economist expects Phoenix sales to stay below last year through the fourth quarter. He also noted that a quick drop in rates could bring buyers and sellers back, which would mean more competition and less negotiating room. Refinancing later is an option, but not a promise. It costs money, and it depends on rates actually moving and on your finances qualifying at that time.

Three Questions I Would Ask Before Buying in Phoenix

When a buyer asks me whether now is the right time, I usually set the market aside for a moment and start with these three questions:

1. How long do you expect to live there? If it is five years or more, short-term swings in rates and prices matter less, and the house has time to work for you.
2. Is the monthly payment comfortable at today’s rate, without counting on a refinance? If the answer is yes, the rate is a cost you can manage rather than a reason to wait.
3. What is driving your move? A lease ending, a new job, a growing family, or the need for a single-level home can make waiting more expensive in ways that don’t appear in any rate chart.

If you answered yes to the first two and something real is driving the third, this market may give you an opening that wasn’t there two years ago. If not, waiting is a reasonable decision, and it is still worth having a plan so you are ready when your situation changes.

If You Are Looking in North Phoenix

The citywide numbers tell part of the story, but conditions vary a lot by neighborhood, ZIP code, and price range. A home near the I-17 and Loop 101 corridor might behave quite differently from one in a newer master-planned community farther north, and that is where local comparisons matter more than metro averages. If you want to get a feel for what your budget buys right now, you can search available homes in North Phoenix and then compare what you find against the payment you are comfortable with.

Let’s Build Your Buy-Now-or-Wait Plan

If you are on the fence, I can prepare a personalized buy-now-versus-wait timing analysis for you. We would start with a short conversation about your timeline, your budget, and the areas you are considering, with no pressure to decide anything that day. From there, I would look at current homes in those areas, recent sale prices and concessions in those neighborhoods, and what your monthly payment could look like at today’s rates. I am a real estate agent, not a mortgage or financial adviser, so I would also encourage you to talk with a lender of your choice about your exact loan numbers. Sometimes the right answer is to move forward this fall, and sometimes it is to wait with a plan. Either way, you’ll know why.

Tim Tiller, MSW | REALTOR®
Southwest Horizon Real Estate Services
Keller Williams Arizona Realty
602-805-7787 · tim@swhres.com

Last reviewed: October 17, 2026. Market data through September 2026; mortgage rates as of October 15, 2026.